Posted by Deviant Investor on March 11th, 2014
Gold peaked in August of 2011 and fell erratically into December 2013.
Was that the end of the collapse, or is there more downside coming in gold prices?
Bearish Scenario: Listen to the banks who are forecasting weak prices in 2014 and thereafter. “Nothing to see here folks, the dollar has weakened drastically since 1971, gold sells for 30 times its 1971 price, but it’s all good. Just move on and pretend… Gold will drop below $1000 before you can say 2016 elections…”
I’m not a fan of:
- The bearish gold scenario when decades of Federal Reserve “printing” and US government budget deficits have all but guaranteed continued destruction of the purchasing power of the dollar.
- Belief that even though dollar debasement practices have accelerated since the 2008 crash, gold prices will fall because bankers say so.
- Propaganda that gold is useless and that unbacked debt based fiat currencies are solid and stable.
- Large High Frequency Trading companies that short the gold market, loudly proclaim that gold prices will fall, dump a huge number of paper contracts on the Comex, quietly cover their shorts after the gold price crash, book huge profits, and then reverse the process as they push prices up. These traders are in the business of making profits so none of this is surprising.
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Posted by Deviant Investor on March 4th, 2014
Gold persistently rallied from 2001 to August 2011. Since then it has fallen rather hard – down nearly 40%. This begs the question:
What happens next?
- Did the gold bull market end at the top in August 2011 as many mainstream analysts believe?
- Was the decline during the past 2.5 years merely a correction in the ongoing bull market?
The answer, in my opinion, can be found in my gold pricing model that has accurately replicated AVERAGE gold prices after the noise of politics, news, high frequency trading, and day-to-day “management” have been purged.
I presented the specifics of my model at the Liberty Mastermind Symposium in Las Vegas on February 22, 2014. A detailed presentation would be much too long for this article, so the following is a quick summary.
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Posted by Deviant Investor on February 25th, 2014
I will be speaking at the Liberty Mastermind Symposium in Las Vegas on February 22, 2014 in Las Vegas. This article will post after the symposium.
My topic is: An Equilibrium Gold Price Model.
Why bother to create a model?
- It will project the price of gold – higher or lower – for the next several years. Will gold go down like from 1980 – 2001, or up, similar to 2009 – 2011.
- It will help evaluate the credibility of price projections from other analysts.
- It will minimize the “hope and despair” in such projections – both up and down – in the price of gold.
- It will increase confidence in your investment decisions regarding gold.
Stay tuned (as they say) for more information in March.
aka Deviant Investor
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